Viewing archive of Friday, 4 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity was low to moderate. Along with several
C-class flare events, Region 324 (S08W40) produced a significant
long-duration M1.9 flare at 2019 UTC. Several regions including
324, 321 (N08W68), and 323 (S07W87) continue to show considerable
low-level activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next two days, dropping off to low when Region 324
(S11W40) makes its way off the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at low to active levels with periods
of minor storming due to the continued influence of a high-speed
solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of
active conditions during the next 24 hours. The waning high-speed
stream will decrease the geomagnetic field to quiet levels with
isolated periods of unsettled on the second and third days.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
Class M | 45% | 35% | 25% |
Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 153
Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 155/150/145
90 Day Mean 04 Apr 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 024/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 015/020-012/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 55% | 45% | 40% |
Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.
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