Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 April 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels. A significant C-class flare from Region 324 (S11W35) occurred at 1027 UTC. This region has rapidly increased in both size and complexity over the last 24 hours. New Regions 329 (N01E18) and 330 (N07E74) were numbered today. No other significant activity occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 324 (S11W35) and 321 (N08W54) are sufficiently complex and should continue to be for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled levels. The high speed stream which began on 30 March is subsiding, but continued instability in the interplanetary magnetic field is maintaining our unsettled activity levels. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of active for the next two days due to the subsiding high speed stream. By day three, the solar wind will increase again, and combined with the potential for southward Bz, is likely to cause an increase to unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storming.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
Class M45%45%35%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Apr 156
  Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr  155/155/150
  90 Day Mean        03 Apr 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  011/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Apr  015/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  010/010-010/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.

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