Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 April 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr

Class M	25%	20%	20%
Class X	05%	05%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       06 Apr 126
  Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr  115/110/105
  90 Day Mean        06 Apr 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  016/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Apr  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  012/012-015/015-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	25%	30%	20%
Minor storm	10%	15%	10%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	30%	35%	25%
Minor storm	15%	15%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.

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