Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 October 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9682 (N11W10) produced an M3/1n event at 31/0809 UTC. This region has an Ekc spot classification and maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Two new regions were numbered today as Regions 9685 (N05E68) and 9686 (N16E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a continued possibility for a major flare from Region 9682.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. A weak shock was observed on the ACE spacecraft at 31/1253 UTC, followed by a 6 nt sudden impulse at 31/1352 UTC observed on the Boulder magnetometer.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible on November 1 resulting from a CME observed on October 29.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
Class M80%80%80%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Oct 221
  Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov  210/200/195
  90 Day Mean        31 Oct 203
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Oct  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  010/015-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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