Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 October 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9682 (N12E04) has continued to produce high C-class and low M-class events during the period. The largest was an M3/1n at 30/0836 UTC. The region continues to grow in area, sunspot count, and magnetic complexity. A long duration C9 event occurred at 30/2032 UTC. SXI images indicate the possible source being a CME from behind the southeast limb of the sun.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. A major flare is possible from Region 9682.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
Class M80%80%80%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Oct 226
  Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov  205/200/195
  90 Day Mean        30 Oct 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  018/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Oct  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  008/008-010/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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