Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 November 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been high due to five M-class events observed during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was an M3/Sf at 1210 UTC from newly numbered Region 9687 (S19E71). Region 9687 produced three additional M-class events and exhibited frequent brightenings throughout the day. An additional M-class event (M1/Sf) came from Region 9678 (N07W75) at 0653 UTC. Region 9682 (N11W22) continues to dominate the disk in terms of apparent size and magnetic complexity, and also exhibited occasional flare activity during the day, some of which were occurring at the same time as flare activity in Region 9687. SXI imagery clearly indicated, however, that new Region 9687 was the dominant contributor to the X-ray flux during the four M-class events mentioned previously.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. M-class events should continue, with regions 9687 and 9682 being the main contributors to activity. There continues to be a chance for an isolated major flare event or proton producing event during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. Approximately five hours after yesterday's shock at 31/1352 UTC, the interplanetary magnetic field turned southward and maintained moderately strong negative values (-8 to -12 nT) from 31/1810 UTC until around 01/1710 UTC. This led to mostly active levels, with a minor storm period from 0600-0900 UTC. At forecast issue time activity had declined to unsettled and Bz was weakly northwards.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
Class M90%90%90%
Class X25%25%25%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Nov 236
  Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov  225/225/230
  90 Day Mean        01 Nov 204
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Nov  025/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  012/012-012/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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