Viewing archive of Friday, 5 October 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Multiple minor C-class flares occurred from several regions. Regions: 9641 (S13W34), 9650 (S14E44), and 9636 (N13W82) all produced small C-class flares. Type III radio sweeps and several discrete radio bursts made up the rest of the day's activity. New Region 9654 (N07E06) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. M-class activity is possible from Regions 9641, 9645, and 9653.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period at mid-latitudes. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, at geosynchronous orbit, event ended at 05/0330 UTC. The proton event peaked at 02/0810 UTC, 2360 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
Class M30%25%25%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Oct 177
  Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct  175/170/170
  90 Day Mean        05 Oct 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  009/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Oct  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  008/008-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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