Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 September 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Sep 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to M1/Sf flares in both
Regions 9601 (N13W79) and 9608 (S26E33). The first occurred at
08/0457 UTC in 9608 and the second at 08/1923 UTC in 9601. Region
9601 is decaying as it approaches the west limb and 9608 continues
to grow in sunspot area and magnetic complexity as it approaches
central meridian. There were also C-class subflares in several other
Regions, most notably 9610 (S14E48) and 9613 (S17W68). New Regions
9614 (N13W19) and 9615 (N12E64) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class flares are probable and a chance of an
isolated major flare in Regions 9601 or 9608 remains.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 250 Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 240/230/220 90 Day Mean 08 Sep 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 008/010-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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