Viewing archive of Friday, 7 September 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Sep 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to an M1/1F flare at 07/1538 UTC in Region 9601 (N13W64). This flare was associated with type II/IV radio sweeps and minor discrete bursts across the spectrum. Region 9608 (S26E45) also generated a number of smaller flares. These areas remain the largest and most complex groups on the sun and have exhibited frequent small flares and plage fluctuations. Region 9610 (S13E60) has rotated fully into view as an E-type sunspot group of about 300 millionths in area. New Regions 9611 (N10W23), 9612 (N22E40), and 9613 (S17W52) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. M-class flares, as well as an isolated major flare, are possible in Regions 9601 and 9608. Region 9610 appears capable of a low-level M-class flare as well.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
Class M75%75%75%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Sep 226
  Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep  230/230/230
  90 Day Mean        07 Sep 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  003/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Sep  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  005/008-005/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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