Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 9566 (N17W72)
produced several C-class flares during the period. This region has
continued to develop and is currently a Dao beta-gamma delta
configuration. There was a long duration C2 event at 11/0640 UTC
with no optical reports observed. Two new regions were numbered
today as Regions 9575 (N11E73) and 9576 (N12W53).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. One active period was
observed at high latitudes at 10/2100 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event on 10 August ended at 10/1440 UTC. The event began at
10/1020 UTC and had a peak flux of 17 pfu at 10/1020 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at minor to major storm conditions for 12 August.
Active to minor storm conditions are possible for 13 August with
unsettled to active conditions on 14 August. This activity is due
to a high speed coronal hole stream and the 09 August partial halo
CME.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 165 Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 160/155/150 90 Day Mean 11 Aug 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 006/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 050/050-030/030-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
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