Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class flares were
observed through the period. Two new regions were numbered today as
Regions 9577 (N16W15) and 9578 (S10W11).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm conditions. A shock
passed the ACE spacecraft at 12/1050 UTC and created a sudden
impulse of 23 nt on the Boulder magnetometer at 12/1136 UTC. Solar
wind velocity increased from 336 km/s to 406 km/s and density jumped
from 6 p/cc to 35 p/cc. This shock is believed related to the
partial halo coronal mass ejection observed on 09 August.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active to minor storm conditions for 13 August due to
the CME mentioned in IIA. Quiet to unsettled conditions should
prevail on 14 and 15 August.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 160 Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 12 Aug 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 002/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 030/030-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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