Viewing archive of Monday, 16 July 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was moderate with a single M1/1n at
16/0320 UTC from Region 9539 (S18W29). The remainder of the period
saw a number of weak C-class flares, the majority of which were also
from Region 9539. New Regions 9544 (N13W14), 9545 (N09E22), and 9546
(S17E60) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
predominantly low with isolated M flares possible from Region 9539 .
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the first two days of the
period due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole. The field
should diminish to quiet to unsettled by day three.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 150 Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 150/155/160 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 006/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 016/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 012/013-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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