Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 November 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. There were numerous C-class flares observed during the period. The vast majority of these flares appeared to originate from source regions beyond the east limb (based on SXI imagery). Region 9715 (N05E30) produced a single optically correlated C6/Sf flare at 27/1552 UTC. This region has continued to show growth in magnetic complexity and areal coverage. Region 9715 remains the most noteworthy region on the visible disk. New Region 9717 (N06E78) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at predominantly low to moderate levels. Region 9715 has the potential to produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event (began 22/2320 UTC, max 18900 pfu at 24/0555 UTC) remains in progress although flux values have been oscillating across event threshold levels throughout the past ten hours of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible during the forecast period due to a southern hemisphere coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton99%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Nov 190
  Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov  195/205/210
  90 Day Mean        27 Nov 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Nov  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  004/005-008/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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