Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9235 (N12E34) produced an M1/1f flare at 18/1325Z, with an associated Type II radio sweep. SOHO/LASCO imagery indicated an associated CME directed off the east limb, though not appearing to be earth directed. Region 9231 (S24E05) also produced an M1/Sf flare at 18/1100Z, as well as an LDE C2/1f flare at 17/2051Z, which was in progress at the end of last period. Other activity included numerous C-class flares from regions 9235, 9231, and 9227 (S09W85). Both regions 9235 and 9231 exhibited increased spot counts. Two new regions were numbered today, 9236 (N19E71) and 9237 (N10W19).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9231 and 9235 are the most likely sources of isolated M-class activity. Today's newly numbered regions may also be a source of moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet, with a single interval of unsettled conditions observed at higher latitudes during 18/1800-2100Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above threshold for most of the day until falling below at 18/2025Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled to active, with minor storming possible at higher latitudes, due to the influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole through day one and into day two. Activity should decrease to predominately unsettled levels by day three.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Nov 177
  Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov  180/185/185
  90 Day Mean        18 Nov 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Nov  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  015/020-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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