Viewing archive of Friday, 15 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Maximum activity continues to
be sporadic minor C-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with the chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet at all latitudes for the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV flux continued its recent daily
fluctuation between low and moderate levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be low, with isolated periods of unsettled conditions,
for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 188 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 190/190/195 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 003/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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