Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a long-duration C3 peaking at 22/0231 UTC. Optical activity
during this event included a SF flare in Region 9203 (N13W43) and an
EPL on the southeast limb near S30E90. Region 9199 (N09W31) has
decayed since yesterday and Region 9201 (N17E06) appears to have
simplified a little.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class activity is expected to continue and an M-class
flare in Regions 9199 or 9201 is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet until the 22/0900-1200 UTC period.
Afterwards the field has been at unsettled to active levels in
response to a high-speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 160 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 015/018-010/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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