Viewing archive of Monday, 23 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few small C-class
subflares occurred, mainly in Regions 9199 (N08W49) and 9201
(N17W08). New regions numbered include 9206 (N20E50), 9207 (S20E65),
and 9208 (S13E77).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class activity in Regions 9199 and 9201. A small M-flare in
one of these regions is possible but is becoming less likely.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels in response
to a high-speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| Class M | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 167 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 170/170/175 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 007/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 010/012-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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