Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 September 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 26 SEP 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD
WAS A C-8 X-RAY BURST AT 26/2000Z. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED IN ANY NUMBERED REGIONS BUT SURGING NOTED ON THE SE LIMB
BECAME PARTICULARLY BRIGHT AND ENHANCED DURING THIS X-RAY EVENT.
LARGE REGION 9169 (N12W34) CONTINUES TO DECAY AND APPEARS TO NO
LONGER CONTAIN A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. ONLY LOW C-CLASS
FLARES WERE OBSERVED FROM THIS REGION. REGION 9173 (S13E51)
UNDERWENT SOME GROWTH AND PRODUCED A C4/SF FLARE AT 26/1231Z. NEW
REGIONS 9174 (S30W60) AND 9175 (N21E67) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 9169, THOUGH DECAYING, IS STILL CAPABLE OF AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. SEVERAL OTHER REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK
MAY PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THIS DISTURBANCE
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
SOLAR WIND SPEED WAS AVERAGING NEAR 600 KM/S. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF
MINOR STORMING POSSIBLE ON DAYS ONE AND TWO. A CME ASSOCIATED WITH
THE M-1 FLARE ON 25/0215Z MAY ENHANCE THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE
THROUGH DAY TWO. MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 27 SEP to 29 SEP
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 SEP 224 Predicted 27 SEP-29 SEP 210/200/190 90 Day Mean 26 SEP 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 SEP 013/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 SEP 020/021 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 SEP-29 SEP 020/020-012/010-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 SEP to 29 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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