Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 September 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD WAS A C9/1N EVENT FROM REGION 9167 (N14W69). NUMEROUS MINOR C-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED FROM SEVERAL OTHER REGIONS, SUCH AS 9169 (N12W47), 9173 (S13E38) AND NEW REGION 9176 (S10E68). SEVERAL OF THE MINOR C-CLASS WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. REGION 9169 SHOWED NO FURTHER DECAY SINCE YESTERDAY. THE REGION NOW HAS A BETA GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 9170 (S06W51) SHOWED SLIGHT GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO NOW HAS A BETA GAMMA CONFIGURATION. NEW REGIONS 9176, AND 9177 (N28E01) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. CONTINUED MINOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. REGIONS 9169 AND 9170 ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. HOWEVER, NEW REGION 9176 NEAR THE EAST LIMB MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE AFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED, NEAR 600 KM/S YESTERDAY, IS SLOWLY DECREASING AND IS CURRENTLY AVERAGING 500 - 550 KM/S. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS POSSIBLE ON THE FIRST DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 28 SEP to 30 SEP
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 SEP 205
  Predicted   28 SEP-30 SEP  205/200/195
  90 Day Mean        27 SEP 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 SEP  017/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 SEP  012/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 SEP-30 SEP  012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 SEP to 30 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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