Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 August 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 30 AUG 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S MOST SIGNIFICANT X-RAY
EVENT WAS A LONG DURATION C4 EVENT FROM 29/2235Z TO 30/0028Z. THERE
WAS AN ASSOCIATED CME DIRECTED AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST LIMB WHICH
WAS OBSERVED TO ENTER THE C2 FIELD OF VIEW AT 29/2354Z AND THE C3
FIELD OF VIEW AT 30/0042Z. DISK ACTIVITY WAS APPARENT IN EIT IMAGES
BETWEEN REGIONS 9148 (S19E18) AND 9143 (S18W06). ADDITIONAL
LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REGION
9149 (N11E44) IS CURRENTLY THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK WITH AN
AREA OF 330 MILLIONTHS. THE GROUP APPEARS TO BE STABLE AT THIS TIME.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT-TO-FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM ACE INDICATE
THE CONTINUATION OF A HIGH-SPEED, POSITIVE-POLARITY, CORONAL HOLE
STREAM. THE FLOW SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING SLOWLY AS EVIDENCED BY A
GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE VELOCITY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS HIGH (GREATER THAN 1000 PFU) DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 31 AUG to 02 SEP
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 AUG 165 Predicted 31 AUG-02 SEP 168/168/165 90 Day Mean 30 AUG 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 AUG 021/031 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 AUG 018/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 AUG-02 SEP 012/012-012/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 AUG to 02 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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