Viewing archive of Friday, 17 November 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9231
(S24E19) produced isolated C-class subflares. It stabilized as a
medium-sized F-type group with moderate magnetic complexity. Region
9235 (N14E51) also produced isolated C-class subflares. A 32-degree
filament erupted from the southwest quadrant beginning around
17/0700 UTC. A CME was associated with the eruption, but it was not
Earth-directed. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9231 may produce isolated M-class
flares during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first day
increasing to unsettled to active levels during the rest of the
period due to coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 163 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 003/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 010/010-015/020-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
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