Viewing archive of Friday, 17 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9231 (S24E19) produced isolated C-class subflares. It stabilized as a medium-sized F-type group with moderate magnetic complexity. Region 9235 (N14E51) also produced isolated C-class subflares. A 32-degree filament erupted from the southwest quadrant beginning around 17/0700 UTC. A CME was associated with the eruption, but it was not Earth-directed. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9231 may produce isolated M-class flares during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first day increasing to unsettled to active levels during the rest of the period due to coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Nov 163
  Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov  160/160/165
  90 Day Mean        17 Nov 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  001/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Nov  003/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  010/010-015/020-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%30%
Minor storm05%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%40%35%
Minor storm05%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%10%05%

All times in UTC

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