Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 November 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several minor C-class events
occurred with the largest one being a C5/1f event from Region 9218
(N20W14) at 05/0149Z. New regions 9222 (N17W35) and 9223 (S19E71)
were numbered today. Region 9222 has shown strong growth during the
period. An active dark filament lies between Regions 9218 and 9222.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Overall, there is an increasing number of regions on
the disk capable of producing M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The effects of
the earth-directed CME back on 01 November have subsided.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to increase to predominantly unsettled to active conditions
the first day of the period due to the arrival of a weak full halo
CME on 03 November. Minor storm conditions are possible in the
higher latitudes. The geomagnetic field is expected to return to
quiet to unsettled conditions for the rest of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 186 Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 185/185/180 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 017/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 015/018-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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