Viewing archive of Monday, 9 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity remained low. Region 9182 (N02W18)
produced isolated subflares, the largest of which was a C5/1n at
09/1316 UTC. The subflares occurred near an area of emerging flux
just to the west of this region. The remaining regions were stable.
No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region
9182.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Unsettled to active periods are
possible during the first half of the period due to weak coronal
hole effects. Otherwise, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 141 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 140/145/150 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 001/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 004/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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