Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 9181 (S29W13)
produced today's largest flare, a C3/1f flare at 07/2341Z. This
region appears to be decaying. Region 9176 (S06W79) produced a few
subflares today but also is slowly decaying as it approaches west
limb. Four small regions emerged or rotated into view today: Region
9187 (N21W07), Region 9188 (S12E32), Region 9189 (N19E54), and
Region 9190 (S20E74). These regions are all small and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. An increase to active levels is
expected sometime late tomorrow and is expected to continue partway
through the third day. The increase in activity is forecast because
of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 149 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 145/145/150 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 002/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 012/015-020/025-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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