Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity remained low. Region 9182 (N03W33)
continued in a gradual growth phase and developed a mixed-polarity
(beta-gamma) structure in the leading portion of the group. It
produced a long-duration C6/1f flare at 09/2343 UTC associated with
Type II and Type IV radio sweeps, and a full-halo CME. The remaining
regions were unremarkable including newly numbered Region 9191
(N16E66).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There will be a fair chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 9182.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
levels occurred during 10/0600 - 0800 UTC. Quiet to unsettled levels
occurred during the remainder of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 11 October. Field
activity is expected to increase to active to minor storm levels
during 12 - 13 October with major storm periods possible at high
latitudes due to an expected CME passage.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 140 Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 145/150/155 90 Day Mean 10 Oct 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 010/010-035/035-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 40% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 40% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 25% | 15% |
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