Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9182
(N03W51) produced isolated C-class subflares including a
long-duration C2/Sf flare at 11/0627 UTC. This region has gradually
developed during the last two days. Minor growth was also noted in
Region 9190 (S17E35) and newly numbered Region 9192 (S14E02). New
Region 9193 (N10W04) was also numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.There will be chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 9182.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels
with brief active periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to active to major storm levels on 12 - 13
October due to an expected CME passage. Activity is expected to
decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 14 October. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high
levels during the latter half of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 151 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 150/155/165 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 007/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 035/035-020/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 01% |
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