Viewing archive of Monday, 6 November 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9210 (S25W82) produced
a C2/1f at 06/0936 UTC. The remainder of the regions on the disk
remained stable through the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm conditions. The
anticipated shock from the CME on November 3rd passed the ACE
spacecraft at approximately 06/0915 UTC. Enhanced IMF and speed
followed, resulting in active to major storm conditions prevailing
from 1200 UTC through the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active for the next 24 hours with
brief periods of minor storm conditions possible. Quiet to
unsettled conditions should prevail for days two and three of the
forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 178 Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 06 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 030/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 015/020-008/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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