Viewing archive of Sunday, 31 January 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 JAN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. SEVERAL SMALL
REGIONS REMAIN VISIBLE AND TWO NEW SIMPLE SUNSPOT GROUPS HAVE
APPEARED. REGION 8446 (N17W72) REMAINS THE MOST INTERESTING REGION
BUT IT IS PRODUCING ONLY EXTREMELY SMALL EVENTS. TWO CORONAL HOLES
ARE NOW VISIBLE AT MIDDLE LATITUDES IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE, ONE
IN THE NORTH AND ONE IN THE SOUTH.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. AN INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT
EXTREMELY QUIET CONDITION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE TWO
SMALL CORONAL HOLES ROTATE TOWARD THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. MODELS
PREDICT THAT CONDITIONS WILL REACH UNSETTLED LEVELS IN THE NEXT
THREE DAYS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVELS FOLLOWING THAT.
III. Event Probabilities 01 FEB to 03 FEB
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 JAN 115 Predicted 01 FEB-03 FEB 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 31 JAN 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JAN 004/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 JAN 004/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 FEB-03 FEB 007/009-007/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 FEB to 03 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 06% | 06% | 07% |
| Minor storm | 03% | 03% | 03% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
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