Viewing archive of Monday, 4 January 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 JAN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS. A PAIR OF MINOR
C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS OCCURRED, THE LARGEST, AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-3 BURST OCCURRED AT 04/0836Z. REGION 8421 (N26W79)
MAINTAINS MODERATE COMPLEXITY AND EXHIBITED FREQUENT SURGING AS IT
NEARS THE WEST LIMB. REGIONS 8426 (N15E04) AND 8428 (N22W35)
PRODUCED MINOR SUBFLARES BUT OTHERWISE SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.
NEW REGION 8431 (S28E69) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8421 REMAINS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR A LARGE
FLARE, BUT EXPECT LOW M-CLASS AT BEST.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FROM DAY 1 TO LATE ON DAY 2.
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE ON DAY 2 THROUGH DAY 3 IN
RESPONSE TO THE LONG-DURATION C6/1N FLARE ON 03/1514Z.
III. Event Probabilities 05 JAN to 07 JAN
| Class M | 45% | 35% | 20% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 JAN 147 Predicted 05 JAN-07 JAN 140/135/130 90 Day Mean 04 JAN 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JAN 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JAN 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JAN-07 JAN 005/008-012/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 JAN to 07 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
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