Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 January 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 JAN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. THERE IS LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CURRENT ACTIVE REGIONS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. SEVERAL LARGE FILAMENTS THAT ARE STILL PRESENT
CURRENTLY DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF IMMINENT ACTIVATION. THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR LARGE-SCALE ACTIVITY INCLUDING FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE OR
ERUPTION ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE-STRENGTH LONG-DURATION FLARES AND
X-RAY EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. MODEL AND RECURRENCE PREDICTIONS
ARE FOR UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 31 JAN to 02 FEB
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 JAN 118 Predicted 31 JAN-02 FEB 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 30 JAN 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JAN 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JAN 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 JAN-02 FEB 006/007-007/009-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 JAN to 02 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 06% | 06% | 07% |
| Minor storm | 03% | 03% | 03% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
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