Viewing archive of Monday, 1 February 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 FEB 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8446 (N18W82) PRODUCED A
C3/SF FLARE AT 0839Z. THE OTHER SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS WERE VERY
STABLE. A 7 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR S22W55 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 31/2057
AND 01/1243Z. TODAY'S H-ALPHA DATA INDICATED SOME FAINT, REMAINING
TRACES OF THE FILAMENT, SUGGESTING THAT MATERIAL MAY HAVE FADED
RATHER THAN ERUPTED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 02 FEB to 04 FEB
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 FEB 118 Predicted 02 FEB-04 FEB 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 01 FEB 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 JAN 003/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 FEB 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 FEB-04 FEB 010/008-010/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 FEB to 04 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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