Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 January 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 JAN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8142 (S21W65) PRODUCED
THE DAY'S ONLY C-CLASS FLARE, A C5/SN AT 26/2235UT. A TYPE II RADIO
SWEEP ACCOMPANIED THE FLARE (EST. SHOCK VEL. 700 - 900 KM/SEC).
ISOLATED B-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. REGION 8143 (S35E10) APPEARED TO STABILIZE WHILE MAINTAINING
A MODERATELY COMPLEX MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE
ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIV ITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGIONS 8142 AND 8143 COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM EITHER
REGION.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE UNSETTLED PERIODS
WERE LIMITED TO HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH 28 JANUARY. A DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED DURING 29 - 30 JANUARY IN RESPONSE TO THE PARTIAL-HALO CME
THAT OCCURRED ON 25 JANUARY. UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DISTURBANCE.
III. Event Probabilities 28 JAN to 30 JAN
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 JAN 101 Predicted 28 JAN-30 JAN 098/098/098 90 Day Mean 27 JAN 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JAN 002/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JAN 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JAN-30 JAN 005/005-020/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 JAN to 30 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 60% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 00% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 11% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 70% | 70% |
| Minor storm | 00% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 10% | 10% |
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