Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 December 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 DEC 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8124 (S21W63) PRODUCED A
C4/SF AT 31/2027Z ALONG WITH A C1/SF AT 31/1826Z. A WEAK DELTA
CONFIGURATION REMAINS IN THIS REGION IN SPITE OF SLOW OVERALL DECAY.
REGION 8126 (N21W23) ALSO PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 31/0718Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT
GENERALLY LOW LEVELS FOR 01-02 JAN. REGION 8124 ROTATES OVER THE
WEST LIMB ON 03 JAN AND THE FREQUENCY OF C-CLASS EVENTS SHOULD BEGIN
TO ABATE. THERE IS A SLIGHT PROBABILITY OF REGION 8124 PRODUCING AN
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE DISTURBANCE OBSERVED ON 30 DEC
ENDED NEAR 30/2100Z. NOTE: BEGINNING ON 01 JAN 98, ALL
FREDERICKSBURG A-INDICES WILL BE ESTIMATED VALUES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 01 JAN to 03 JAN
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 DEC 105 Predicted 01 JAN-03 JAN 103/103/098 90 Day Mean 31 DEC 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 DEC 018/025 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 DEC 003/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 JAN-03 JAN 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 JAN to 03 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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