Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 December 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 DEC 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8124 (S22W55)
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SLOW DECAY AND STILL MAINTAINS MINOR MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY. REGION 8130 (S29E16) IS GROWING BUT IS A RELATIVELY
SIMPLE SUNSPOT GROUP. BOTH REGIONS 8126 (N21W10) AND 8130
EXPERIENCED NUMEROUS INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS BUT HAVE BEEN
QUIET SINCE 1400Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LOW TO
LOW. ALL THREE SPOTTED REGIONS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
C-CLASS FLARING.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS.
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT MOST MID AND LOW
LATITUDE STATIONS WHILE ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRED IN
THE HIGH LATITUDES. THE DISTURBANCE FOLLOWED A SUDDEN STORM
COMMENCEMENT AT 30/0215Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
MINOR STORMING IN THE HIGH LATITUDES. THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MOSTLY UNSETTLED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 31 DEC to 02 JAN
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 DEC 101 Predicted 31 DEC-02 JAN 102/102/098 90 Day Mean 30 DEC 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 DEC 002/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 DEC 018/022 PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 DEC-02 JAN 015/013-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 DEC to 02 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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