Viewing archive of Monday, 26 January 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 JAN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY ROSE TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE
PERIOD. REGION 8145 (N28E35) PRODUCED AN M1/1B FLARE AT 25/2136UT
ACCOMPANIED BY MINOR DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. THE REGION WAS A SMALL,
STABLE BIPOLE BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE FLARE. REGION 8143 CONTINUED
TO DISPLAY MODEST GROWTH IN SPOT COUNT AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND
PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES. REGION 8142 (S22W45) PRODUCED AN
ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE LOW.
REGIONS 8142 AND 8143 ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED B- AND
C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH 28 JANUARY. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ON 29 JANUARY IN RESPONSE TO A PARTIAL-HALO CME DETECTED ON
25 JANUARY. ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LATITUDES DURING THE
DISTURBANCE. ISOLATED MINOR TO MAJOR STORM PERIODS MAY OCCUR AS
WELL.
III. Event Probabilities 27 JAN to 29 JAN
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 JAN 100 Predicted 27 JAN-29 JAN 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 26 JAN 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JAN 007/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JAN 002/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JAN-29 JAN 005/005-005/005-020/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 JAN to 29 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 60% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 70% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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