Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 January 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 JAN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY
EVENT WAS DETECTED AT 28/0253Z. THERE ARE CURRENTLY FIVE ACTIVE
REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK, WITH REGION 8143 (S36W04) BEING THE
MOST COMPLEX AS A 17-SPOT 'FAI' BETA-GAMMA. ALL ACTIVE REGIONS HAVE
REMAINED RELATIVELY STABLE SINCE YESTERDAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING, IN
RESPONSE TO THE PARTIAL HALO CME DETECTED ON 25 JANUARY. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONGER THAN 24 HOURS, WITH
ACTIVITY DECREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 29 JAN to 31 JAN
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 JAN 097 Predicted 29 JAN-31 JAN 098/098/098 90 Day Mean 28 JAN 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JAN 004/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JAN 004/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JAN-31 JAN 020/015-015/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 JAN to 31 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 50% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 02% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 70% | 60% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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