Viser arkiv af lørdag, 26 april 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 26 2200 UTC
Udarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet

SDF nummer 116 Udstedt til 2200Z på 26 Apr 2003

IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 25-2100Z til 26-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. An abundance of activity was observed today, most of which occurred in Region 338 (N18W71). Region 338 produced a very impulsive M7.0 x-ray flare at 26/0807Z. This region also produced an M2.1/1f flare at 26/0058Z and an M2.1/Sn flare at 26/0306Z along with multiple C-class events. The delta magnetic complex remains intact and penumbral coverage appears to be oscillating with this regions flare production. Region 344 (N16E13) has yet to produce any flare activity although the white-light penumbral coverage and the magnetic complexity of this region have shown rapid growth during the past 24 hours. Yesterday, this region was a simple beta complex which has since developed into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. Region 337 (S14W26) was quiescent through most of the period. Regions 347 (S20E36), 348 (S36E58), and 349 (S14E60) were newly numbered today.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
Activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 remains capable of producing an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 25-2100Z til 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Influences from yesterdays favorably positioned coronal hole have waned as the solar wind speed has dropped to approximately 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels. Minor storm conditions are possible with the onset of a favorably positioned coronal hole on days one and two. Elevated field levels are possible through the interval due to weak transient passages resulting from the flare activity of the past several days.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 27 Apr til 29 Apr
Klasse M70%70%50%
Klasse X15%15%05%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
  Observeret       26 Apr 144
  Forudsagt   27 Apr-29 Apr  150/145/140
  90 dages gennemsnit        26 Apr 126
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
  Observeret Afr/Ap 25 Apr  019/032
  Anslået     Afr/Ap 26 Apr  010/015
  Forudsagt    Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  020/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 27 Apr til 29 Apr
A. Mellemste breddegrader
Aktiv35%30%25%
Mindre storm20%15%15%
Større-alvorlig storm10%05%05%
B. Høje breddegrader
Aktiv40%35%30%
Mindre storm30%20%10%
Større-alvorlig storm15%10%05%

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