Viser arkiv af søndag, 27 april 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 27 2200 UTC
Udarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet

SDF nummer 117 Udstedt til 2200Z på 27 Apr 2003

IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 26-2100Z til 27-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 338 (N18W85) produced an M2.5/Sf at 26/2340Z and an M1.7/Sf at 27/1532Z which were the largest flares of the period. This region was again responsible for the vast majority of the activity observed today. Proximity to the west limb hinders analysis of changes in magnetic structure today. Region 344 (N16W00) showed slight growth today and retains a beta-gamma-delta structure. The weak delta complex is evident in the northwestern quadrant of the dominant trailing spot. Region 337 (S14W40) underwent rapid growth during the period adding many additional spots to the south of the main body of this group. This region also depicts a beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. A 34 degree solar filament erupted yesterday at approximately 26/2000Z which resulted in a streamer CME that does not appear as though it will become geoeffective No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 has begun to transit the disk but remains capable of producing a major flare.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 26-2100Z til 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An increase of 150 km/s in the solar wind speed during the period is believed to be the result of a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through the interval. High latitude minor storm conditions are possible on day one and into day two due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 28 Apr til 30 Apr
Klasse M70%50%50%
Klasse X15%10%05%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
  Observeret       27 Apr 154
  Forudsagt   28 Apr-30 Apr  155/160/155
  90 dages gennemsnit        27 Apr 127
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
  Observeret Afr/Ap 26 Apr  009/015
  Anslået     Afr/Ap 27 Apr  012/012
  Forudsagt    Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  015/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 28 Apr til 30 Apr
A. Mellemste breddegrader
Aktiv35%30%25%
Mindre storm20%15%10%
Større-alvorlig storm10%05%05%
B. Høje breddegrader
Aktiv45%35%30%
Mindre storm30%25%15%
Større-alvorlig storm15%10%05%

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