3-dages vejrudsigt

Udstedt: 2024 May 02 1230 UTC
Udarbejdet af US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA geomagnetisk aktivitetsobservation og prognose

Den største observerede 3 timers Kp i løbet af de sidste 24 timer var 3 (under NOAA-skalaniveauer).

Den største forventede 3 timers Kp for May 02-May 04 2024 er 4 (.33under NOAA-skalaniveauer).

NOAA Kp indeks opdeling

             May 02       May 03       May 04
00-03UT       2.67         3.67         3.33     
03-06UT       2.00         3.33         2.33     
06-09UT       2.67         3.00         3.00     
09-12UT       3.33         3.33         2.67     
12-15UT       3.00         3.00         2.67     
15-18UT       3.33         3.33         4.00     
18-21UT       4.00         3.33         4.33     
21-00UT       4.33         3.67         4.33     

Begrundelse

No G1 (Minor) eller større geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Observation og prognose for solstrålingsaktivitet

Solstråling, som observeret af NOAA GOES-18 i løbet af de sidste 24 timer, var under S-skala stormniveautærskler.

Solstorm prognose for May 02-May 04 2024

              May 02  May 03  May 04
S1 eller større   10%      5%      5%

Begrundelse

A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm will exist on 02 May given the relatively recent activity from AR 3654 and its current location.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout aktivitet og prognose

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 01 2024 1444 UTC.

Radio blackout prognose for May 02-May 04 2024

              May 02        May 03        May 04
R1-R2           55%           40%           30%
R3 eller større   10%            5%            5%

Begrundelse

R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity remain likely on 02 May given the flare histories of ARs 3654 and 3663. Probabilities decrease to a just a chance 03-04 May as AR 3654 rotates off the visible disk.