3-dages vejrudsigt

Udstedt: 2024 Sep 13 1230 UTC
Udarbejdet af US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA geomagnetisk aktivitetsobservation og prognose

Den største observerede 3 timers Kp i løbet af de sidste 24 timer var 7 (NOAA skala G3).

Den største forventede 3 timers Kp for Sep 13-Sep 15 2024 er 6 (.00NOAA skala G2).

NOAA Kp indeks opdeling

             Sep 13       Sep 14       Sep 15
00-03UT       5.00 (G1)    3.33         3.00     
03-06UT       4.67 (G1)    4.67 (G1)    4.00     
06-09UT       4.33         4.67 (G1)    3.33     
09-12UT       3.67         4.00         3.00     
12-15UT       4.00         3.00         3.00     
15-18UT       2.67         3.00         2.33     
18-21UT       4.33         3.33         2.33     
21-00UT       6.00 (G2)    4.00         3.00     

Begrundelse

G1-2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely 13-14 Sep due to ongoing and additional anticipated CME activity.

B. NOAA Observation og prognose for solstrålingsaktivitet

Solstråling, som observeret af NOAA GOES-18 i løbet af de sidste 24 timer, var under S-skala stormniveautærskler.

Solstorm prognose for Sep 13-Sep 15 2024

              Sep 13  Sep 14  Sep 15
S1 eller større   10%      5%      5%

Begrundelse

A chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event will persist through 13 Sep as multiple regions transit the western limb.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout aktivitet og prognose

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Sep 12 2024 1443 UTC.

Radio blackout prognose for Sep 13-Sep 15 2024

              Sep 13        Sep 14        Sep 15
R1-R2           75%           55%           55%
R3 eller større   15%           10%           10%

Begrundelse

R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected on 13 Sep. R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts event probabilities decrease, but remain likely, 14-15 Sep as multiple regions exit the western limb.