3-dages vejrudsigt

Udstedt: 2023 Dec 02 0030 UTC
Udarbejdet af US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA geomagnetisk aktivitetsobservation og prognose

Den største observerede 3 timers Kp i løbet af de sidste 24 timer var 7 (NOAA skala G3).

Den største forventede 3 timers Kp for Dec 02-Dec 04 2023 er 5 (.67NOAA skala G2).

NOAA Kp indeks opdeling

             Dec 02       Dec 03       Dec 04
00-03UT       5.00 (G1)    2.33         2.67     
03-06UT       5.67 (G2)    2.67         4.00     
06-09UT       4.67 (G1)    2.00         4.33     
09-12UT       3.67         2.00         5.67 (G2)
12-15UT       2.67         2.67         4.67 (G1)
15-18UT       2.33         2.67         4.00     
18-21UT       3.00         2.67         3.33     
21-00UT       3.00         2.67         4.67 (G1)

Begrundelse

G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected on 02 Dec due to CME activity, and are likely on 04 Dec due to CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Observation og prognose for solstrålingsaktivitet

Solstråling, som observeret af NOAA GOES-16 i løbet af de sidste 24 timer, var under S-skala stormniveautærskler.

Solstorm prognose for Dec 02-Dec 04 2023

              Dec 02  Dec 03  Dec 04
S1 eller større   10%     10%     10%

Begrundelse

There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) radiation storms over 02-04 Dec.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout aktivitet og prognose

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Dec 01 2023 0439 UTC.

Radio blackout prognose for Dec 02-Dec 04 2023

              Dec 02        Dec 03        Dec 04
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 eller større   10%           10%           10%

Begrundelse

There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events, and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) eller større events, over 02-04 Dec.