Viser arkiv af fredag, 25 april 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 25 2200 UTC
Udarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet

SDF nummer 115 Udstedt til 2200Z på 25 Apr 2003

IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 24-2100Z til 25-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels today. The largest flare of the period was an M1/Sf which occurred at 25/0540Z from Region 346 (N16E61) and had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 814 km/s. There seems to be little magnetic complexity to this region based on a single Hsx spot seen in white-light. Region 337 (S14W13) appears to have changed little since yesterday and remains a beta-gamma magnetic complex. Region 338 (N18W58) produced the majority of the flare activity throughout the interval which was limited to C-class events. Magnetically, this region appears to be in a decay phase as a single delta complex remains apparent verses the several complexes analyzed earlier in the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 338 remains capable of producing M-class events.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 24-2100Z til 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active to minor storm levels. High speed solar wind speeds along with embedded transient activity are believed to be responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels with isolated major storm conditions possible throughout the period. High speed coronal hole flow may continue to be enhanced by transient activity for the entire interval. A weak CME impact from the M5 flare on April 23 is possible on day one. Further CME effects are possible on day two resulting from the M3 flare that occurred on 24 April. The M1 that occurred today may have a very weak impact late on day two into day three.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 26 Apr til 28 Apr
Klasse M50%50%50%
Klasse X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
  Observeret       25 Apr 144
  Forudsagt   26 Apr-28 Apr  145/150/145
  90 dages gennemsnit        25 Apr 126
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
  Observeret Afr/Ap 24 Apr  024/024
  Anslået     Afr/Ap 25 Apr  020/025
  Forudsagt    Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 26 Apr til 28 Apr
A. Mellemste breddegrader
Aktiv45%45%30%
Mindre storm25%25%20%
Større-alvorlig storm15%15%10%
B. Høje breddegrader
Aktiv40%40%45%
Mindre storm30%30%25%
Større-alvorlig storm20%20%15%

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