Viendo archivo del lunes, 16 mayo 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 May 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 136 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 May 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1208 (N08W64) produced a C4 event at 15/2334Z. An associated CME was
first observed on LASCO C2 imagery at 16/0024Z and had an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of 250 km/s. It is not expected to be
geoeffective. New Region 1216 (S14E66) was numbered today and is
considered an Hsx group at this time.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
low for the next three days (17-19 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period at 15/1800Z due the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS).
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for day one (17 May). A decline from quiet to unsettled to
mostly quiet conditions is expected on days two and three (18-19
May) as the CH HSS gradually subsides.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 May a 19 May
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 May 092 Previsto 17 May-19 May 090/090/095 Media de 90 Días 16 May 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 May 009/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 May 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 May a 19 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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