Viendo archivo del domingo, 12 junio 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jun 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 163 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Jun 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity remained very low. Isolated B-class
x-ray flares occurred. A B8 flare at 12/1714Z was from a region just
beyond the northeast limb. Region 1234 (S15E18) was the only spotted
region on the disk and remained a simply-structured Bxo group. A
prominence erupted from the west limb near N09W90 during 12/1341 -
1443Z and was associated with a CME. The CME had an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of 565 km/s and did not appear to be
Earth-directed. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to very low
during the period (13 - 15 June) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during most of
the period. An active period was observed at Boulder during 12/1200
- 1500Z. ACE solar wind data indicated the continued presence of a
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) with wind speeds in the 436
to 485 km/s range. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was slightly enhanced, likely associated with
recent activity in old Region 1226 (S20, L=037), which departed the
west limb on 09 June.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (13 -
14 June) with a chance for active levels due CH HSS effects.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (15 June)
as the CH HSS begins to subside. There is a slight chance for a
greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit on day 1
(13 June).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Jun a 15 Jun
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Jun 085 Previsto 13 Jun-15 Jun 084/084/084 Media de 90 Días 12 Jun 103
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Jun 010/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Jun 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Jun a 15 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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