Space Weather Forecast - Debate

Emitido: 2024 Feb 22 1230 UTC
Preparado por el U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Actividad solar

Resumen 24 hr
Solar activity reached high levels as AR3590 (N17E32, Fki/beta-gamma-delta) produced a pair of X1 flares at 21/2307 UTC and 22/0632 UTC. No apparent CMEs have been observed with these events as of the time of this writing. Former AR3575 (S36, L=178) produced an M1.5 flare from around the SE limb at 22/0014 UTC. There was only one other spotted AR on the visible disk, which has been stable and inactive for several days. An eruptive filament was observed starting around 21/1500 UTC in the northwest quadrant and an eruptive prominence was observed around 21/1600 UTC on the southeast limb. Analysis and modeling showed the bulk of the ejecta being ahead of Earths orbit. However, a glancing influence remains possible on 25 Feb.
Predicción
Former AR3575, which has a history of producing X-class flares, is expected to return to the visible disk on 22 Feb. Chances for moderate solar activity and M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) will increase as this AR comes into view over the next day or two. AR3590 also has the continued potential to produce M-class and greater flares.

Partículas Energéticas

Resumen 24 hr
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at near background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
Predicción
There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) proton event for the next three days (22-24 Feb) dur primarily to the potential of AR 3590. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels.

Viento Solar

Resumen 24 hr
The solar wind environment was at nominal levels. Total field strength peaked at 8 nT and Bz was variable. Wind speeds averaged near 350 km/s. Phi was positive.
Predicción
Nominal levels are expected through 24 Feb.

Geoespacio

Resumen 24 hr
The geomagnetic field remained at quiet levels under a mildly enhanced solar wind environment.
Predicción
Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated through 24 Feb.

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Hechos clima espacial

Último evento clase X2024/02/22X1.6
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*desde 1994

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