Viendo archivo del domingo, 15 mayo 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 May 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 135 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 May 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1208 (N11W48) produced an isolated C1/Sf at 15/1620Z. This region
grew in area and is classified as an Eso type sunspot group. Region
1214 (S21E01) grew but remained a simple magnetic bi-polar group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the next three days (16-18 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours.
Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate the onset of a coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind velocities increased
throughout the period to about 590 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled, with a slight
chance for isolated active periods on days one and two (16-17 May).
Day three (18 May) is expected to be quiet as the CH HSS subsides.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 May a 18 May
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 May 095 Previsto 16 May-18 May 092/092/090 Media de 90 Días 15 May 110
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 May 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 May 011/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 May a 18 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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