Viendo archivo del lunes, 18 abril 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Apr 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 108 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Apr 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1193 (N17E05) has been the most active, producing two
low-level C-class events. Region 1193 has remained rather stable but
continues to grow in sunspot number and magnetic complexity. At
18/0348Z, a C1 flare was observed off the west limb. There was a
non-earth directed CME associated with this event visible in LASCO
C2 imagery at 18/0412Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(19-21 April). Region 1190 (N13W68) is expected to rotate off the
visible disk in the next two days, while a new flux Region, visible
in STEREO Behind EIT imagery, is forecast to rotate onto the
southeast limb early on 19 April.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours. Quiet levels were observed till around 18/0634Z when
a 24 nT Sudden Impulse (SI) was observed by the Boulder
magnetometer. Following the arrival of this shock, mostly unsettled
levels were observed at mid latitudes with isolated active periods
at high latitudes. This increase in activity was due to the arrival
of a slow moving CME, observed lifting off the solar disk on 15
April.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (19 April). An increase to
unsettled geomagnetic levels with a chance for active periods is
expected on days 2 and 3 (20-21 April), due to the forecasted
arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Apr a 21 Apr
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Apr 111 Previsto 19 Apr-21 Apr 115/115/115 Media de 90 Días 18 Apr 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Apr 002/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Apr 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 005/005-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Apr a 21 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 00% | 01% |
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