Viendo archivo del martes, 19 abril 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Apr 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 109 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Apr 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. New Region 1195 (S16E68) rotated onto the visible disk, early
in the period, as a Dao sunspot group. Before being numbered, Region
1195 produced several C-class events off the east limb, as well as
the largest event of the past 24 hours, a C1 flare at 18/0512Z.
Region 1193 (N17W08) continues to evolve and has grown into a
beta-gamma magnetic classification.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (20-22 April).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for
isolated active periods for the next three days (20-22 April).
Heightened activity levels are expected due to the arrival, early on
day 1, of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Effects from
the CH HSS are expected to last about 2 days. Late on day 2, a
slow-moving CME is expected to become geoeffective with effects
lasting through day 3.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Apr a 22 Apr
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Apr 111 Previsto 20 Apr-22 Apr 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 19 Apr 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Apr 008/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Apr 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Apr a 22 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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