Viendo archivo del martes, 5 julio 2005

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jul 05 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 186 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Jul 2005

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 788 (S06E32) produced a C1/Sf flare with an observed optical Y-shaped ribbon at 05/1526 UTC. This event had an associated partial halo CME which was first observed in the LASCO imagery at 05/1530 UTC. There were two other CME's observed by LASCO imagery during the last 24 hours. One was at 04/2130 UTC and the second was observed at 05/0330 UTC. Both of these appear to be backside events and not Earth directed. Region 786 (N12E23) has lost its delta magnetic configuration and has decreased in total sunspot count. Region 783 (S03W22) has grown and is now around 530 millionths of white light area coverage and has developed a magnetic beta-gamma configuration. A 26 degree long filament disappeared from S22W22 between 05/0205-1220 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low. Both Regions 783 and 786 are capable of producing and isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet for 06-07 July. Quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are possible on 08 July due to the effects of the partial halo CME observed today.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Jul a 08 Jul
Clase M45%45%45%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       05 Jul 127
  Previsto   06 Jul-08 Jul  130/125/120
  Media de 90 Días        05 Jul 095
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 04 Jul  005/007
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 05 Jul  005/006
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  005/007-005/007-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Jul a 08 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%10%15%
Tormenta Menor05%05%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%20%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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