Viendo archivo del miércoles, 6 julio 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jul 06 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 187 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Jul 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 786 (N11E10) has
produced several C-class events during the last 24 hours. Data
indicates this region contains a strong magnetic delta
configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 783 (S03W36) and
786.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for 07 July. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected for 08-09 July. This increase in activity
is due to possible effects from the halo CME observed on 05 July and
also a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moving into a
geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Jul a 09 Jul
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Jul 123 Previsto 07 Jul-09 Jul 125/120/120 Media de 90 Días 06 Jul 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Jul 003/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Jul 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 005/007-015/020-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Jul a 09 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 10% |
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