Viendo archivo del miércoles, 8 junio 2005

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jun 08 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 159 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Jun 2005

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 776 (S06E33) produced multiple B and C-class flares today. The largest was a C2 x-ray flare that occurred at 08/0625Z. There was some visible growth seen in sunspot area. Region 775 (N10E21) underwent growth in two of the satellite sunspots which now appear to be attached to the dominant central sunspot. Magnetic analysis indicates this region to have beta-gamma-delta characteristics. Region 772 (S18W58) was limited to minor B-class flare production while showing a slight growth in sunspot area. A partial halo CME was observed on LASCO imagery beginning at 08/0512Z which is slow moving and appears to have an Earth directed component. The source for the activity appears to be related to a disappearing solar filament just to the northwest of Region 772. The remaining active regions were quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Regions 775 and 776 both have the potential of producing isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period. There is a slight chance that the effects of the partial halo CME that occurred today could begin to be felt late on day three (11 July).
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Jun a 11 Jun
Clase M25%25%25%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       08 Jun 116
  Previsto   09 Jun-11 Jun  115/115/110
  Media de 90 Días        08 Jun 094
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 07 Jun  011/018
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 08 Jun  005/007
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  006/008-006/008-010/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Jun a 11 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%25%
Tormenta Menor05%05%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%25%
Tormenta Menor05%05%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%05%

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