Viendo archivo del lunes, 4 julio 2005

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jul 04 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 185 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Jul 2005

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to two, low-level C-class events. The first was a C1/Sf at 03/2111 UT from Region 787 (S11W58) and the second was a C1 at 04/2037 UT from Region 782 (S18W56). Both of these regions are small and appear to be decaying. Region 783 (S03W07) continues to be the largest on the disk but was in decay today. The group appears to have simplified to a beta magnetic configuration and did not produce any flares. New Region 789 (N18E74) rotated into view today, accompanied by surging on the limb and frequent low-level brightenings. Region 786 (N12E36) showed growth today and appears to have a magnetic delta configuration in the leading group of spots. Despite the complexity in 786 the group did not produce any flare activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low, but there continues to be a chance for an isolated M-class event, with Regions 786 or Region 783 the most likely source.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field should be mostly quiet for the next three days (05-07 July).
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Jul a 07 Jul
Clase M35%35%35%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       04 Jul 124
  Previsto   05 Jul-07 Jul  120/120/115
  Media de 90 Días        04 Jul 095
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 03 Jul  009/011
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 04 Jul  005/007
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  005/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Jul a 07 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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